SW Iowa to have not-so-white Christmas
Dreaming of a white Christmas won’t lead to much this year.
With above average temperatures and below average precipitation levels, southwest Iowa and western Nebraska have little chance of seeing snow this holiday season.
For this part of the country, the probability for a white Christmas is 25-40 percent, according to the National Climate Data Center.
“It’s not unusual to not have a white Christmas,” National Weather Service Meteorologist Cathy Zapotocny said. “There is actually a bigger probability to have a brown Christmas than a white one.”
To be a true white Christmas, Zapotocny said a full inch of snow is required, which only happens about one-third of the time.
For Omaha, which according to the NCDC has the same probability as Red Oak for a white Christmas, only 39 of the 119 years of records have had snow Dec. 24-25.
The most snowfall recorded on Christmas in Omaha since 1871 was 6 inches in 1941; the average, though, is only .2 inches. Christmas 2009, though came close with 5.8, making a total of about 10 inches for Dec. 24-25. These numbers do not include snow that is already on the ground by Christmas morning. The most snow on the ground on a Christmas morning was 13 inches in 1983, and the average is 2 inches.
According to Zapotocny, the mild winter season is due to the storm track patterns.
“There is a southerly dry flow right now; so the storm track has been farther north of us,” she said, adding this storm pattern was also responsible for the summer’s drought.
The northerly storm track has been responsible for snow throughout the northwest, including part of northern Iowa, and Canada. While too early to tell if southwest Iowa will receive any snow this season, Zapotocny said current data based on pressure patterns shows well above average temperatures. For December 2011, the average high in Red Oak was 40 degrees Fahrenheit with a low of 21; December 2012, however, has seen highs into the mid-50s with lows just under 30 degrees.
These higher temperatures mixed with an average .01 inches of precipitation for the month so far, compared to .07 inches in December 2011, create a recipe for what Zapotocny referred to as a brown season rather than a white one.
On Dec. 5, the National Weather Service reported Omaha’s longest snow-free streak, 284 days. The city last saw snowfall Feb. 24 with .2 inches. Red Oak also last saw traces of snow Feb. 24.
Aside from containing the longest snow-free streak, 2012 has also been the warmest year to date for Omaha. While these comparisons are not available for Montgomery County, data including average temperature and precipitation levels is comparable.